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closeAll the Chase cards are finally on the table - face up
DAVID POOLE
The Charlotte Observer
Thursday, Sep. 04, 2008
Denny Hamlin (11) takes a low line against Clint Bowyer (6) during the Pepsi 500 at Auto Club Speedway in Fontana, Calif. (AP Photo/Dave Waters)
Clint Bowyer has it. David Ragan and Kasey Kahne both want it. One race, one night and only one will go home happy.
Boiled down to its bones, that's the story for Saturday night's Chevy Rock & Roll 400 at Richmond (Va.) International Raceway.
Bowyer, Ragan and Kahne may not figure in who wins the 26th race of the 2008 Sprint Cup season, but going in they are the main players in the event's central drama - the battle for the final spot in this year's Chase for the Sprint Cup.
It is at least mathematically possible that Bowyer, Ragan and Kahne could all make the Chase. That, however, would take a remarkable set of circumstances given the gap between Denny Hamlin, who's currently 11th in the standings, and the three drivers directly behind him.
Matt Kenseth, Jeff Gordon and Hamlin primarily need only to avoid disaster to secure their slots in the 10-race championship battle that commences next weekend at Loudon, N.H. Kenseth is 109 points ahead of Ragan, who's 13th, while Gordon's Chase cushion is 102 points and Hamlin's is 93.
In the first four years of the Chase, the largest gap that's been closed in the final regular-season event at Richmond is 55 points. That's how far behind Jeremy Mayfield was in 2004, the year NASCAR implemented the Chase when he came from 14th to knock Kahne from one of the 10 qualifying spots.
Kahne was 30 points out of the top 10 in 2006, the last year only 10 drivers made the Chase. But he was actually 45 points behind the driver he passed with his third-place finish at Richmond, Tony Stewart, who finished 18th and missed the playoff.
Bowyer's perch, then, seems precarious. He's only 17 points up on Ragan, who's trying to make the Chase for the first time the way Bowyer did a year ago. Kahne is 48 points back as he tries to fight his way in at the last race the way he did two seasons ago.
As the determining moment approaches, the parties with the most to gain (or lose) can only get ready as best they know how.
"Obviously, it's crunch time," Bowyer said. "If there's anything that gives you a good feeling, it's knowing that we won there in the spring and it's a track that I typically run well at."
The race at Richmond this May is remembered most as the one in hwich Hamlin dominated until he had problems, and Kyle Busch and Dale Earnhardt Jr. had a late-race bumping incident. But it was Bowyer who won that night, for his only win so far this year.
Bowyer's worst Richmond finish in five tries in his No. 07 Sprint Cup Chevrolet is 12th. But that doesn't mean he's not worried.
"Richmond is a track where anything can happen," he said. "We've kind of put ourselves in this situation, but it's time to see what we are made out of."
If Bowyer slips, Ragan is in the best position to benefit. Ragan fell five points after last week's race at California, but he had a third-place finish in last fall's Richmond race and could certainly use another good result like that to at least keep the pressure on Bowyer.
"The bottom line is we've got to go out and beat these guys," Ragan said. "There's no other way around it."
This is Ragan's second season in Cup, and Saturday night's event could very well be the most pressure he's faced in any single race so far in his career.
"I probably don't realize how big this race is," Ragan said. "After the year is over we'll have time to sit back and think about it, but I'm trying not to go about it like that. If I put this much effort and concentration into one race, a make-or-break race, I think that would be a little too much.
"Certainly, we're all excited about the race, to where we're thinking about it, but we've just got to go out and run our race, and whether we make the Chase or not is not going to depend on just the one race at Richmond. I can go back all the way to the Daytona 500 and talk about things that I would've done different and would've gotten us different results."
Kahne is far enough back that he knows he could win the race and still have that not be enough to make the Chase.
"All we can do is do our best and hope that it works out for us and kind of see how the points end up," he said. "If we run our race, it doesn't necessarily mean we are going to make it into the Chase."
Kahne said just a few weeks ago he was thinking more about how far up among the drivers in the Chase he might finish after Saturday night.
"I went into Michigan kind of thinking that we had been running really strong, we had been right there every weekend," he said. "I felt like maybe we had a shot at maybe being sixth in points ... and then just racing happened."
He blew an engine at Michigan and got sucked into a wreck at Bristol, finishing 40th in both races. All of sudden, he was out of the top 12.
"I was really surprised to see how quickly we lost a lot of spots and ended up maybe having a shot at making it in," he said. "We're 14th now. ... I think that we're better than that. But you know, now it's what it is and we'll see if we can make it."
The players
Who's in, who's close and who's clinging to hope going into the final race before NASCAR's Chase for the Sprint Cup:
Clinched Chase spots
Kyle Busch, Carl Edwards, Jimmie Johnson, Dale Earnhardt Jr., Jeff Burton
On the brink
GREG BIFFLE: Clinches when he starts Saturday's race.
KEVIN HARVICK: Needs only to finish 42nd or better at Richmond.
Must dodge disaster
TONY STEWART: Clinches with a finish of 35th or better.
Still some angst
MATT KENSETH: 109 points ahead of 13th, clinches with a finish of 25th or better.
JEFF GORDON: 102 points ahead of 13th, clinches with a finish of 23rd or better.
DENNY HAMLIN: 93 points ahead of 13th, clinches with a finish of 20th or better.
Sweating bullets
CLINT BOWYER: 17 points ahead of 13th, but if he wins the race he's in the Chase.
Heart's still beating
DAVID RAGAN: 17 points behind Bowyer.
KASEY KAHNE: 48 points behind Bowyer.